2009 MLB Preview

I am a nerd and could easily write 500 words about each teams’ offseason performance. Instead I’ll write a few sentences about each and a win projection, plus a few overall projections for each league.

American League:
East
1. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66): Easily the best division in baseball, the AL East will be a dog fight. The Rays have the best pitching so I would put my money on them to win.  Plus having 3 legitimate MVP candidates in Crawford, Longoria and Upton doesn’t hurt either

2. Boston Red Sox (95-67): Probably the safest bet to win the East, the Red Sox have the perfect balance of veteran and young players.  A rebound year from David Ortiz and someone emerging at shortstop will be key.

3. New York Yankees (92-70): This division will almost certainly come down to health, and the Yankees are already unhealthy, as A-Rod is out for a month.  Despite having the best off season in baseball the Yankees don’t have the durability to compete with the Rays and Sox for 162 games.

4. Toronto Blue Jays (81-81): Maybe the 4th best team in the AL, however they have no chance at making the playoffs.  I doubt you knew they had the #1 rotation in baseball last year.  Yet limited offense will disable them from seriously competing.

5.  Baltimore Orioles (70-92): Ew. do you know any of their starting pitchers? Me neither.  Their offense will have to carry them to every win.

Central

1. Chicago White Sox (85-77): The Sox aren’t good, but the division is even worse.  Emerging young stars will have to carry them all year (Alexei Ramirez, Carlos Quentin, Jon Danks) for them to make the playoffs.

2.  Cleveland Indians (84-78): I LOVE the Mark DeRosa addition, I expect him to torture the Sox this year, but that alone won’t carry them into the postseason.  Cliff Lee will not have as good a year and Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez will produce similar numbers if the league continues to test for steroids.

3.  Minnesota Twins (82-80): For some reason this team scares me.  On paper they aren’t anything special but I will never count them out.  The Joe Mauer injury ultimately will prove too harmful.

4.  Detroit Tigers (77-85): The Tigers are in AWFUL economic shape, unless they start off extremely hot they will be having a fire sale in June.  Dontrelle Willis was also placed on the DL because of an anxiety disorder. Not a good sign.

5. Kansas City Royals (72-90): I like what the Royals did this offseason, I think they could compete…for 4th place in the division.  Possibly a contender in 2010.

West

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim(?)(88-74): This is the worst division in baseball, the Angeles got drastically worse in the offseason and are still clear favorites in the division.  If the rotation can stay healthy they could win the West with 85 wins.

2.  Oakland A’s (85-77): I love the A’s this year.  Adding Matt Holiday and Jason Giambi should enable them to challenge the Angeles, should be interesting.

3. Texas Rangers (78-84): Their rotation isn’t as bad as the Orioles, but their offense is worse.  Expect an Ugly year.

4. Seattle Mariners (67-95): The worst team in the AL.  At least Ken Griffey Jr. is back and the team looks good for 2010 as most of their high paid players will become free agents.

Predictions:
Break through player: Alexei Ramirez - shined last year at 2B, now moves to his natural position at SS, plus a year of experience at the plate, expect .300/25/100 type numbers.
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez.  CC Sabathia and Roy Halladay will get beat up by the powerful offenses in the east, so a young arm comes to power in Hernandez.
MVP: B.J. Upton - Although slightly retarded, watching him in the postseason last year was a treat. Will lead his team to the playoffs.
Most intriguing story line: the AL East.  The 3 best teams in baseball play in the same division, can’t wait to see how it turns out.
Champion: Rays.  They made it last year and a number of their young players should be better this year. Watch out.

National League

East:
1.  Philadelphia Phillies (94-68): Return almost everyone from a championship team. A down year from Brad Lidge is the only thing I see preventing Philly from returning to the playoffs.
2.  New York Mets (92-70): A totally revamped bullpen earns my selection as the wild card.  Although I would love to see another September collapse, I think the Mets have added enough to make it to October.
3.  Atlanta Braves (86-76): A great offseason should mean the Braves are competing late in the season.  Expect Javier Vasquez to choke in a big situation and the Braves to fall just short of the playoffs.
4.  Florida Marlines (81-81): Hanley Ramirez will be a treat to watch this year, but not enough surrounding talent to compete.
5.  Washington Nationals (73-89): Are they rebuilding or retooling? I don’t think anyone knows. The Adam Dunn signing was interesting for a team that clearly won’t compete this year.

Central:
1.  Chicago Cubs (93-69): I would project for a few more wins, but I figure the Cubs will clinch in early September.  The entire regular season will feel like spring training in Chicago, as it doesn’t really matter for the Cubs.  Unless they can get to the World Series the season will be deemed a failure; easily the most pressure of any team this year.
2.  St. Louis Cardinals (84-78): This team will go as far Albert Pujols can take them.  If he turns in an MVP performance they could win the wild card.
3.  Cincinatti Reds (82-80): My NL sleeper team.  Don’t expect them to make the playoffs, but an underrated rotation will make them competitive.
4.  Milwaukee Brewers (78-84): Should score a lot of runs but the loss of Sabathia and Sheets cannot be compensated for.
4.  Houston Astros (78-84):  a weak bullpen and very old team.  Could break .500 but don’t bet on it.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (65-97): this is a AAA team. Try to name 5 of their players.

West
1.  Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74): Manny Ramirez probably won’t bat .400 but he will carry his team into the playoffs again.
2.  Arizona Diamondbacks (86-76): I really like the D’Back’s offseason as well.  One of the best rotations in baseball.  I expect them to compete for the division/wild card.
3.  San Francisco Giants (78-84): A good offseason by the Giants will lead to more wins this year, and Tim Linecum is really really really good, but thats about it.
4. Colorado Rockies (77-85): Not many good things to say about this team, they got worse, they got older, they won’t compete.
5.  San Diego Padres (70-92):  The most boring offseason in baseball as they failed to trade Jake Peavy.  Not coincidentally the only story line about the Padres is if/when/where Peavy will be dealt.

Predictions:
Break through player: James Loney. Cubs fans remember this name from last October I’m guessing
Cy Young: Johan Santana doesn’t lose the Cy Young 2 years in a row.
MVP: Manny Ramirez.  He should put up some disgusting stats this year, accompanied by a playoff berth Manny should win the MVP.
Most intriguing story line: NL Wild Card. I expect the Mets, Braves, Diamondbacks, Cardinals and even Reds to compete for the final playoff spot.
Champion: Mets. Pitching wins in the playoffs and the Mets bullpen is the best. the combination of K-Rod and JJ Putz will turn any 7th inning lead into a victory.

World Series Champion: Rays. I am in love with this team. Rays over Mets in 6.